The UK referendum of 23rd June 2016 will be forever remembered as a historic event that changed the future of Britain. Britons have elected to leave the European Union with 52% of the votes. The decision to leave the European Union has been met with shock and elation, both within the country and internationally. With 48% voting to remain and hence a difference of just 4%, the country is hugely divided on the matter, with almost half of its citizens left disappointed with the outcome. The victorious voters, however, are celebrating an uncertain future that they hope will have positive implications for the UK.
British citizens made their decision after hard-fought campaigns following the announcement of the referendum date in February 2016. During this speech, Prime Minister, David Cameron, stated that the choice would be ‘one of the biggest decisions this country will face in our lifetimes’. In a display of true democracy, individual politicians campaigned for the side they believed in, irrespective of party allegiance, and when it came to the ballot, every vote counted, as opposed to the First Past the Post system that is used for UK elections.
Key arguments for the “remain” campaign
The “remain” campaign urged citizens to vote for ‘a stronger Britain’, claiming a stronger economy and stronger leadership on the world stage. The campaign claimed the country gets more back than it puts in in the form of lower prices, more jobs and more investment. Safety was another major point, with the campaign claiming membership enables the ability to fight cross-border crime, tackle terrorism and tackle climate change. In the event of leaving the EU, the campaign predicted job losses, price increases and less money for public services like the NHS. The “remain” campaign controversially made many references to staying in or leaving “Europe” in its manifesto, which could have confused, mislead or irritated citizens as Europe is not the same as the European Union. The “remain” campaign was led by Conservative Prime Minister, David Cameron, and was also backed by the Labour Party.
Key arguments for the “leave” campaign
The “leave” campaign, nicknamed “Brexit”, was arguably less polished than that of the opposing side, however, its main slogan was that Britain should ‘take back control’. The campaign claimed that the UK pays approximately £350 million per week into the EU and gets less than half of this back with no control over how it is spent. By leaving the EU, Brexit claimed that the UK would be able to spend the money saved on priorities like the NHS, make its own laws, regain control over its borders, control its own economy and trade and gain more international influence. The campaign pointed out that Britain does not have to be part of the EU to trade with it, and also that due to its EU membership, the UK is currently unable to negotiate trade deals with key allies such as the USA and Australia, nor with growing economies like China and India. The “leave” campaign was led by Conservative MP, Boris Johnson, and was also backed by the UK Independence Party (UKIP).
Predictions of a close call
Prior to the referendum, polls indicated the decision whether or not to leave the EU would be a close call. The last survey, conducted by market research organisation, Ipsos MORI, revealed that 52% of people who were likely to vote and considered the result important to them would vote to remain in the EU, while 48% would vote to leave.
A tense night
As the counts started pouring in during the night of June 23rd, it became clear that the results would indeed be very close, with no accurate prediction possible. However, the live coverage indicated there was surprise at the number of leave votes being declared in some areas that had been thought to primarily support remaining in the EU. In the small hours, footage of “remain” campaigners showed a somewhat sombre atmosphere, whilst “leave” campaigners seemed more upbeat and jubilant.
The official result
At 07:20 BST (British Summer Time), the result was officially announced by the Chair of the Electoral Commission, Jenny Watson. There were 16,141,241 votes in favour of remaining in the EU and 17,410,742 votes in favour of leaving the EU. With an impressive voter turnout of 72%, Britons voted to leave the EU, casting 1,269,501 more votes than the opposing side. In percentages, 52% voted to leave, while 48% voted to remain. The turnout comprised over thirty million voters and was the highest since the General Election of 1992.
Analyses of the results
There are patterns to be seen in the votes, with higher proportions of “remain” supporters in the cities and more “leave” voters in rural areas and in those subject to deprivation and lack of investment. Preference of remaining in the EU in the cities could be due to ‘fear of the unknown’ and being ‘more comfortable with immigration’, according to BBC correspondent, Ed Thomas. Voting to leave the EU is likely to be a result of dissatisfaction with the growing disenfranchisement of British Parliament due to increased EU powers, combined with some simply voting ‘against the establishment’, the latter according to analysis by BBC correspondent, Danny Savage. Scotland had an overwhelming majority of “remain” voters, and this is likely to spur a second Scottish referendum for independence.
In Ireland, political party with MPs in both Northern Ireland and Ireland, Sinn Féin, has called for a vote on whether Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK. It is believed, however, that this is unlikely to be a priority as the Irish government does not anticipate enough support for a united Ireland.
European response
In mainland Europe, President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, and President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, stated that the remaining twenty-seven EU countries ‘will continue’ and are ‘determined to maintain their unity’. German Chancellor and de facto leader of the EU, Angela Merkel, expressed ‘great regret’ at the decision, while German Professor, Peter Beyer, highlighted the importance of discouraging other member states from heading for the door after Marine Le Pen, president of French political party, the National Front, called for France to hold its own EU referendum. Denmark, too, is keen to follow suit, and this could lead to further referendums across Scandinavia. There is concern that the UK’s departure will trigger an ‘entire break-up’ of the EU.
Sterling crash
The pound has plummeted since the counts started being announced during the night of 23rd June, dropping to levels not seen since 1985. The lowest was a fall of 10%, although it partially recovered during the afternoon of 24th June. The drop represents the pound’s biggest one-day fall in history, but while the financial markets are likely to remain volatile in the short-term, things should stabilise. The Bank of England stated it was ‘monitoring developments closely’ and would take ‘all necessary steps’ to ensure monetary stability.
The Prime Minister’s statement
David Cameron, the UK Prime Minister, was strongly in favour of remaining in the EU, and around an hour after the result was announced he made a statement outside 10 Downing Street. Cameron declared his passion for the “remain” campaign before saying: ‘the British people have made a very clear decision to take a different path, and as such I think the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction…I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination.’ While Cameron is happy to oversee an initial ‘period of stability’, he suggested a new Prime Minister is appointed ‘by the start of the Conservative Party conference in October’.
Possible successors
The former Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, is tipped to become the new Prime Minister, while other leadership contenders are likely to include the Home Secretary, Theresa May, who was in favour of remaining in the EU, “Brexit” supporter, Justice Secretary, Michael Gove and other pro-Brexit MPs like Priti Patel. The UK has a maximum of two years to negotiate its withdrawal from the EU under the terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, and although David Cameron has said it will be up to the new Prime Minister to invoke the article, EU representatives are urging more rapid action, stating that ‘any delay would unnecessarily prolong uncertainty’.
A brand new Great Britain
After such a monumental decision to leave the European Union, Britain and the rest of the world are likely to face some turmoil over the next few years. Once the UK officially exits the EU it can start to harness the potential benefits identified by campaigners such as control over spending, laws and the economy. A new migration policy, more money for the NHS and new international trade relationships would pave the way for a better Britain. Its citizens are hoping that leaving the EU is the right decision for a brand new Great Britain.
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© 2016 Ruth Hayward – This material may not be copied in whole or in part without the prior written consent of the author. Please contact the author here to request permission to duplicate.
Ruth Hayward 